تطبيق أنموذج انحدار بواسون الهرمي على وفيات بوباء كورونا المستجد في مستشفيات مدينة الموصل

الملخص EN

This research deals with the study of the partial hierarchical Poisson regression model (with a random intercept), where this model is one of the most important models widely applied in analyzing data that is characterized by the fact that the observations take a hierarchical form.

Where it the full maximum likelihood (FML) method is used to estimate the model parameters.

The model was applied to the covid-9 deaths in Mosul city, were recorded during the period (1/1/202 - 1/9/2021), where four major hospitals in the city were selected to represent the group of second level of data (Ibn Sina Hospital, Al Salam Hospital, Shifa Hospital, General Mosul Hospital).

The research found the adequate of the model for this type of data, as it was found that there are some factors that contribute to the increase in the number of deaths in the epidemic, such as the advanced age of the patient, the length of stay in the hospital, the percentage of oxygen in the patient's blood, in addition to the incidence of some chronic diseases such as asthma.

The study recommended a more in depth study of other types of these models, and the use of other estimation methods, in addition to paying attention to the methods of data recording by the city health department.