الآثار الاقتصادية لكوفيد-19 على قطاع السياحة في مصر و تونس

الملخص EN

This research paper aimed to study the economic effects of Covid-19 pandemic on tourism sectors in both Egypt and Tunisia, with recommendations made to ease the negative effects of Covid-19 pandemic on this vital sector in both countries.

Methods: The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), Bounds Test for Counteraction, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were used in this study.

Results: The Egyptian and Tunisian models were significant, and the independent variables managed to explain about 99% of the dependent variable.

There is an equilibrium relationship in the two models in the long term.

As for the short-term relationship, the Egyptian model needs about ten months, or nearly a year, for tourism revenues to return to their equilibrium value in the long term.

As for the Tunisian model, tourism revenues will need about five months, or nearly half a year, to return to their equilibrium value in the long term.

Both the Egyptian and Tunisian models passed all the tests for quality, stability and the results can be relied on in forecasting.

Conclusion: It was concluded that the economic effects of Covid-19 pandemic on the Egyptian tourism sector were more damaging than those effects on the tourism sector in Tunisia.

There were also significant economic losses incurred in the tourism sectors in the two countries, which require more efforts to regain strength and quickly revive these sectors in both countries once this crisis is over.