تحليل للعوامل المؤثرة على إنتاج القمح في محافظة مطروح باستخدام نموذج ARDL

الملخص EN

Wheat is one of the strategic crops related to food security, and to increase its production and reduce import, it's necessary to increase its cultivated area by 50% .

The study aimed at estimating the wheat supply response function using the ARDL model in Matrouh.

The results showed that the error correction coefficient l (CointEq(-1)) (Cointegrating Form is negative and significant -0.441093) at a level of significance less than 0.01), which means that there is a long-term relationship, and the negative value means a regression to the equilibrium value), and the coefficients of the variables show the independent equation in the long-term co-integration equation, where the coefficient of the variable amount of rainwater, That is, there is a positive and statistically confirmed relationship (at a level of significance less than 0.01), and this agrees with reality.

The coefficient of wheat price variable was negative and significant, meaning that there is a statistically confirmed inverse relationship (at a significant level greater than 0.01) between the wheat price variable as an independent variable and the area planted with wheat as a dependent variable, although this does not agree with statistical logic, it agrees with the actual reality where it is used as animal feed, due to the lack of water for irrigation during the process of expelling the ears.

The study recommends the optimal use of available water resources, including rain water, rain harvesting in Matrouh, and attention to irrigation operations, especially during the period of expulsion of the ears to increase production.