أثر ارتفاع الأسعار العالمية للغذاء وتقلباتها على الميزان التجاري في كل من مصر والأردن خلال الفترة (1990-2021)‎: دراسة تحليلية قياسية

الملخص EN

This research aims to analyze the impact of high international food prices and their fluctuations on the trade balance in Egypt and Jordan, and to determine their relative importance compared to other factors affecting it in the two countries during the study period, which contributes to developing appropriate policies that avoid shocks resulting from high international prices for agricultural products..

and that is by studying the impact of high global food prices and their fluctuations on the trade balance in the economic literature, and the evolution of the relationship between global food prices and the trade balance deficit in the two countries, then by using the joint integration method and the ARDL model, long-term relationships are estimated, and through the model of er-ror correction (ECM) short-term relationships are estimated the long-run results show the existence of a co-integration relationship between the model variables in the two countries, and that the rise in international food prices has a significant impact on the trade balance in the two countries, as the 1% rise in global food prices results in an increase in the trade balance deficit by 1.68%, 1.01% in each of the two countries.

Egypt and Jordan, respectively.

trade openness negatively affects the trade balance deficit in the two countries, and foreign direct investment flows positively affect it in the two countries, and economic growth affects it positively in Egypt while it affects it negatively in Jordan, and the foreign exchange rate affects it positively in Egypt and negatively in Jordan.

there is great agreement between the short-run results and the long-run results, although there are some limited differences according to the conditions and structure of the production activity and the structure of commodity exports and imports in Egypt and Jordan.