التداعيات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية لجائحة فيروس كورونا المستجد (كوفيد-19)‎ في المغرب

الملخص EN

This research paper examines aspects of the relationship between the health crisis caused by the Covid- 19 outbreak and the economic, social and political situation in Morocco, with a special focus on the analysis of the pandemic's impact, and some proposed scenarios for economic recovery.

Moroccan policymakers today face a thorny dilemma regarding the flattening of two different curves: the Covid- 19 pandemic and the economic recession.

Concerning the pandemic curve, statistical data have revealed that by the end of May 2020 it was almost fully flat, but that in the second half of June 2020 this trajectory slowed, especially with the emergence of familial and corporate hotspots.

As far as the economic recession is concerned, the package of initiated public measures seems to be proving effective in alleviating the pandemic's impact on supply as well as demand, thereby avoiding a fall in GDP toward a record meltdown.

Despite these efforts, prospects for the recovery of the Moroccan economy are still unclear.

Our forecasts thus draw on a variety of scenarios, formulated in the short, medium and long term, finally concluding that the national economy will recover in the course of 2023.

Our forecasts reveal that the domestic economy may even perform better, on the condition that it overcomes four major challenges: i) reforming the health system; ii) enhancing social security in its broadest sense; iii) stimulating the economy and accelerating its transition to more sustainability; iv) and improving the quality of institutions.