مقارنة بين طريقتي التنقية المكيفة و هولت-و نترس المضاعفة للتنبؤ المستقبلي بقيم السلاسل الزمنية الموسمية

الملخص EN

The primary purpose of the modalities for the time series models can be used to describe particular problem and the result accession future behavior of the phenomenon studied which is one of the important issues of science and basic statistical example accession temperature daily and exchange rates in financial markets, thus in the fields of industry and agriculture.

The computer technology has played an important role of modern and effective in decision making and accession required by expectations or to be neglected as the effect of this trend for managers to select the best in the business of accession, which is planning the result of an important and effective management and control using methods of accession of many companies.

Many regulatory processes of the various applications can be trusted and rely on the accuracy of the accessions to control the output of the statistical forecasts.

In view of the importance of accession deviation, it was different of the goal of this research for a comparison between the method of purification and seasonal Holt way and in the accession using the remote and moving averages, and compare the standard based on the mean square error (MSE) to assume the future values of the seasonal time series models.