الصادرات و المستوردات، محددات كل منهما، و تأثيرهما على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الأردن : تحليل التكامل المشترك و نموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ VECM

الملخص EN

This study aims to explore the determinants of exports and imports in Jordan, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, export’s price and import’s price.

It also aims to estimate the effcct of export and import on GDP.

the study applied many time series analysis tools for the period 1976-2004, including: stationarity test, cointegration test, cointegration equation, and vector error corrcction model.

- The result showed: 1- Significant and positive total and net effects of export on GDP.

2- Negative significant impact for export prices on export volume.

3- Positive effect effect for GDP on both exports and Imports.

4- Negative influence for import on GDP.

5- Significant negative relation between exports and exchange rate on one hand, and weak positive relation between import and exchange rate on the other hand.

Based on these results, the study recommends the following: pursuing export expansion strategy , discovering local raw materials as an alternative for the imported materials, establishing vertical integrated industries to get the most benefit from imported raw materials, supporting export competitiveness through tax exemption, and lastly the study highly recommends performing researchs on the level of commodity export.