أثر التذبذبات المناخية في إنتاجية الحمضيات في محافظة كربلاء

الملخص EN

The relationship between the elements of the climate and the productivity of citrus (kg / tree) in the province of Karbala has been determined through the use of simple correlation coefficient of Pearson (rp) and (t) test.

The result for each of oranges, limes and tangerine had all shown moral and relevant statistical indications; except for relative humidity, which were not linked to a moral relationship with productivity of tangerine, oranges and limes.

As for the relationship between climatic factors and yield of bitter orange were all not significant statistically and very weak.

In order to determine the strength of the correlation between fluctuations in the climatic elements and fluctuations in the productivity of citrus, the researcher has resorted to measure the “regression coefficient” (b) between the two variables.

The value of (b) calculated for the relationship between fluctuations in hours of sunshine, maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and wind speed, compared to the fluctuations in the productivity of orange, tangerine and limes were indicating that the productivity of these crops rise or fall by the fluctuations that have occurred in those elements of climate.

Excluding fluctuations in relative humidity and rainfall amounts compared to fluctuations in the productivity of these crops has been regression curve as a straight line parallel to the axis of the sigmoid.

Here one should note that, the fluctuations in the relative humidity and the amounts of rainfall compared to the fluctuations in the productivity of these crops were different.

It was found that the regression curve appears as a straight line parallel to the axis of the sigmoid.

This indicates that the productivity of these crops are not affected by the simple annual fluctuations that get in the rates of relative humidity, nor by the big fluctuations in the amount of rain the other hand, over the selected time series.

Finally, the study demonstrated that the value of the measures (b) for the relationship between fluctuations in the climatic factors and fluctuations in the productivity of bitter orange has resulted somewhat different from the results described at above : the relationship with hours of sunshine and wind speed came to denote that this crop is affected slightly by these two elements of climate, especially with the first element.

As for the relationship with the maximum and minimum temperature the result has shown a negative slope coefficient in a simple way, especially with the first element too.

The value of (b) for the relationship between the fluctuations in the relative humidity and rainfall compared with the fluctuations in the productivity of bitter orange refers to the fact that productivity of this crop is not affected by fluctuations that occur in the annual rates of these two elements of climate across the selected time series.

The regression curve was closer to the case of a straight line parallel to the x-axis ; so the study proceeded to explain it on the basis of : the annual fluctuations in the first component obtained in a simple and within the requirements of citrus ; while in the second that the peasants in the region do not rely so much on rainfall, owing to the fact that the region is considering as anirrigation work area.