محددات الميزان التجاري في مصر خلال الفترة (1986-2007)‎

الملخص EN

The Main hypothesis of the study was that the real domestic income(expressed in gross domestic product), the real world income( expressed in real world product), the real exchange rate and the real money supply (M2) are the main determinants of Egypan trade balance (1986-2007).

There were two subsidiary hypotheses.

The first hypotheses was that the real world product and the real exchange rate have a positive impact on the real trade balance, while the second was that the real gross domesc product and real money supply (M2) have a negave impact on the real trade balance.

The Objective of this research was to test the last three hypotheses.

Before testing the research model, the unit roots test (by applying the Augmented Dicky-Fuller) was used to test the stationary or non-stationary variables data across the time.

The results showed that the variables data was stationary (had not a unit root).

Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS) was used to test the long term relationships between trade balance (as a dependant variables) and its determinants (as an independent variables).

The findings showed that the main hypothesis ( instead of the absence of the impact of real money supply (M2) on real trade balance) and the first subsidiary hypotheses were right, but the second subsidiary hypothesis was wrong (there was a positive and statistically significant impact for the real GDP on real trade balance).

So we can say that the elasticity and expenditure approaches investigated the long term changes on the Egypan trade balance during the period (1986-2007).

Finally, trade balance problems can be solved by applying the policies related to income, money supply and exchange rate.