تطبيقات نماذج بوكس جينكز السنوية في التنبؤ : دراسة حالة : الجرائم المبلغة في السودان لمفترة 1989-2012 م

الملخص EN

The problem of this research is represented in how to identify the methodology of Box - Jenkins of annual prediction on building a model and using it to predict the reported crimes in Sudan.

The objective of this research is to clarify the steps and stages of conducting the methodology of Box - Jenkins in building a time series model to predict reported crimes in Sudan.

The study used secondary data representing the reported crimes in Sudan for the period between 1989-2012.

The data were obtained from the Ministry of Interior Affairs -General Administration of Detectives and Criminal Investigations.

The data were analyzed using the time series analysis of the methodology of Box - Jenkins using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS).

The most important results of the study is the time series data pattern is stationary, and that the appropriate model to estimate the data of this reported crimes in Sudan is ARIMA (0, 2, 1).

The most important recommendation of the research that the responsible authorities can adopt this model that has been estimated in predicting crimes and forecast for the next years.