التحري عن الجفاف المناخي في شمال العراق باستخدام طريقة الأعشار

الملخص EN

Deciles method is one of the indices which are used for studying and analysing of droughts in the world and especially in Australia.

The method is known by its simplicity and the limited data needed for analysis, and up to the knowledge of the authors this paper is the first study which utilizes this method for drought analysis in Iraq.

Deciles method is used in this research for meteorological drought investigation in Northern Iraq.

Monthly rainfall data is collected and utilized from 9 meteorological stations scattered in the study area which are; Sinjar, Tel-Afer, Dohuk, Mosul, Erbil, Kirkuk, Dokan, Sulymania, and Derbendikhan for the period 1937-2010.

The meteorological drought cases were studied and analyzed using a table proposed in this study.

The table includes the proposed maximum and minimum rainfall depths for each decile and for each station involved in the study.

This table can be used to identifying drought periods’ set on and termination in future.

This can be achieved by comparing the actual rainfall depths in a certain area with the proposed tabulated values to diagnose drought cases which help in taking suitable actions for drought mitigation in advance.

The drought analysis for the study area showed that the area has faced a sequential drought periods which were recurring about every decade and the most severe drought periods were in 1997-2001 and 2007-2010.