الدورات الاكتائبية في سوق تأمينات الممتلكات و المسؤوليات في مصر : دراسة كمية مقارنة

الملخص EN

The aim of this study is to examine the presence of underwriting cycles in the property and casualty insurance market in Egypt.

Cycles were estimated for the whole market as well as for 9 lines of business covering the period of 1980 to 2010.

The second ordered Autoregressive model (AR2) was applied.

The study found the lack of evidence of underwriting cycle - according to the Venezian model - whether at the level of whole property and casualty insurance market, or at the lines level.

By Cummins - Outreville model, there is statistical evidence on the existence of an underwriting cycle with length 4.46 years at the level of property and casualty insurance market as a whole, otherwise no evidence on the existence of underwriting cycles has been found in all lines being studied.

These findings indicate that the Egyptian P/L insurance market, in spite of the liberalization of insurance prices, can not be described as a competitive market.