دراسة مقارنة بين الانحدار المبهم باستخدام البرمجة بالأهداف و الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية للتبؤ بأسعار البترول

الملخص EN

The study of forecast oil prices is considered among the most complex studies due to the various dynamic variables which influence on these strategic goods.

In addition to the economic laws that control its prices such as the law of supply and demand, we find other variables which control more over its prices characterized in the political conditions, especially if it is concerned with the state that contributes a lot to the world production.

There has been proving interest in the subject of forecasting during recent years and there have appeared specific modern methods for example, Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Sets Theory and Fuzzy Regression Models.

For this reason, there has a comparison between Artificial Neural Networks and the modern ones has been tackled in this research as well as with the use of Goal Programming in the analysis of Fuzzy Regression Models to forecast the oil prices, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error has been adopted to make a comparison between the methods.

Goal Programming Method has proved its superiority over the usual and modern methods in analyzing Fuzzy Regression Models.