الآثار المحتملة لمنظمة التجارة العالمية (WTO)‎ على التجارة الخارجية اليمنية

الملخص EN

Having decided to follow some economic reform policies, Yemen started to show deep interest in joining the GATT (the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) in May 1990 - The date marks the union of the two states of northern and southern Yemen.

As the "out is odd" , Yemen by all means should be a member in the WTO (World Trade Organisation).

In Fact, Yemen had been occupied by Britain, henceforth no difficulty- according to the WTO terms- is expected to be faced in this respect.

The impacts of joining the WTO on Yemen’s foreign trade can be tracked down : 1 - Farm Products Due to a persistent shortage in the Yemeni trade balance, $138.1 m annually, and agricultural exports, the prices of farm products would increase.

Some analysists argue that such a * Yemeni Researcher - !□stitate of A rah Research ar،d Studies .

situation may lead farmers to develop their erops with a view to export and cover the loeal market.

2 - Intellectual property CostsontheYemeni government are expected to increase-to$20 m annually-as a result ofapplying the intellectual property terms.

3 - Balance of payment On the one hand, petroleum and its products represent 91.1% of the total Yemeni exports, agricultural products 5.2% and manufactured items 3.7% .

Undoubtedly, Yemen’s exports will be affected as they do not meet the developed countries specifications.

On the other hand, the main imports include wheat, corn, rice, sugar, coffee, tea, cacao, live sheep and cattle, meat, milk, eeg, and fruits- about 22<،/ه of total imports And as the prices of imports increase, farmers would inevitably increase their crops.

In the long or short run, Yemen will have to bear loses in Foreign curruncy annually ( Yemen lost about Y.R.142.5 m in 1995 ).

Also the manufactured products constitute 22% and industry will face hard competition in the prices and (qualities of good imported from the international markets.

4 - Services balance Yemen achieved an exeess of $ 324 m in tourism, travelling, ports, customs and marine fields in 1997.

Consequently, the WTO membership would not affect the services balance.

Rather, profits are to be gained particularly in tourism and the free zone of Eden City, especially after it has followed some economic reform measures.

5 - Official ه private transfer balance This balance is subject to political factors.

Thus, no negative impacts are expected.

The official transfer reached $ 787 m in 1990 -97.

The private transfer was connected to immigration, the main source of foreign currency in yemen during the same period.

Although 700.000 Yemeni returned home in the aftermath of the second Gulf War, economy is still dependent on their transfers.

Private transfers amounted $ 9.473 m in 1990-97.

6 - General balance To join the WTO and decrease customs tariffs, Yemen will suffer from additional costs and a shortage in the general balance.