تقدير الطلب على العمالة الوافدة في القطاع الخاص و إمكانية إحلالها بالعمالة الوطنية في المملكة العربية السعودية باستخدام التكامل المشترك و نموذج تصحيح الخطأ

الملخص EN

The research aims to study and analyze the status of labor market in the private sector, estimate the demand for foreign labor in the Saudi private sector, using Johansen Cointegration and Error Correction model, and determine the possibility of replacing foreign labor with national labor.

The study also proposes the appropriate methods to reduce the size of foreign labor without affecting economic development.

It dopts the descriptive and quantitative analysis method and uses the time-series data.

Furthermore, some economic models such as linear regression, unit root test, Johansen Cointegration and Error Correction model are used.

The results of the econometric model show that the demand for foreign labor in the private sector is directly proportional to the real non-oil GDP, average of Saudi worker wage, and the number of organizations registered in the Social Insurance System.

Also, the demand for foreign labor is inversely associated with the average of foreign workers’ wages.

The flexiblitiy of the demand for the aforementioned variables reached about 1.17, 0.498,0.344,-0.621.

The study stresses the need to exert further efforts to rationalize the level of foreign labor employment in the private sector, develop policies to gradually replace them with Saudis, and build labor market database and make it available to researchers and organizations interested in recruiting national labor.