أسلوب مقترح للتنبؤ بالسلاسل الزمنية ذات الدور المنتظم : إنتاج الزيتون في سورية

الملخص EN

Olive cultivation is witnessing a remarkable development in the Syrian Arab Republic in terms of area cultivated and the number of trees and the quality of cultivated varieties of olives.

The result of this evolution Syria occupied first place in the Arab and olive production ranked fifth in the world after Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, by passing Tunisia, which occupies the first place was an Arab.

Olive production as dependent variable is affected by much of the factors which can be considered independent: The number of trees and age of tree and tree type and amount of rainfall, temperature and location of olive cultivation…… However, the most important influence on the production of olive is a phenomenon alternate fruit bearing in fruit trees.This lead to the affected by a time series of olive production, in addition to the regular periodic of other factors, the general trend and random factors.

This study aims to provide a new method for modeling and analysis of time series with a regular cyclical factors and its application to olive production in the Syrian Arab Republic.

The study to develop an econometric model based on the proposed new method can be used to predict the production of olive in Syria, and predict the size of production until 2016.

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