خضوع أسعار النفط لقوانين اقتصادية أم تبعات سياسية

الملخص EN

The aim of the research to know the extent to which the pricing of oil for economic laws of any supply and demand law, or is subject to political consequences and repercussions and the effects of economic performance as a result of the fluctuation of oil prices, which coincided with most of the economic crises of the countries of the world in general and the producing countries and oil exporters in particular.

It is known that politics plays an important role in influencing economic conditions, according to the rule of international relations is a strong dominant and in control of this arena, became the United States and its allies are the ones who control the oil market on the international scene.

Where he raised a decline in oil prices, a state of economic confusion in the world, especially in countries that rely Aguetsadatha on oil exports, which raises questions about the impact of this decline on the budgets of these countries in addition to the political dimension and the possibility of changing the map of political forces, especially in the presence of political challenges and internal problems within the Gulf region, which appear in the Saudi-Iranian relations and the level of US-Russian relations and the extent of the role played by Saudi Arabia in this crisis being the largest exporter and oil producer in terms of total current production of OPEC it amounted to about 30 million barrels a day, a third of global production.

An analysis of prices on the political intentions is that the oil pricing involves complex equations and limits overcome counterproductive may lead, because there is always a price thresholds lead to structural changes in the market if the price of oil fluctuated dramatically, up or down.

The most important of these factors regard to the cost of extraction of heavy oil, it was the cost of extracting a barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia does not exceed $ 3, the stimulation of oil stuck in the underground rock, or oil sand heated to be liquidated, are tasks too expensive to reach $16, and relies on a manufacturing process that consumes a lot of energy and resources.

For this reason, if a sharp decline - and continuing - in oil prices may lead to the output of this production from the market and the collapse of a large number of extraction companies that finance the projects usually through debt and loans, which assumed prices for energy exceed a hundred dollars, but that the effects of low prices will show effects on the budgets of those countries and come Arabia one of the first countries that will be affected by these declines are Saudi Arabia, given the relatively high number of the population in addition to the high appreciation of the price of a barrel in the budget Arabia "$ 90" which makes them more susceptible to the disorder down oil prices.

In this sense There are certain limits to lower prices when production will start to decline, ranging from the most expensive fields and farthest from the regions of consumption, what turns again and relieve pressure on the market.

For this reason, some experts believe that Saudi Arabia's goal is to keep the oil within the "appropriate limits, limit the oversupply is to shake the markets and threaten the companies in the West.

It was found through the display cases experienced by the oil market between suppliers and producers not subject to economic laws, such as supply and demand and measure the costs and pricing to the average price of one barrel of oil, while the whole subject to the rule of international relations, the strong is dominant and in control of this arena, including the oil market and determine the price of oil, including cash monetary policy and support the dollar, which is considered the greatest economic strategic weapon used by the Americans, which is linked to global currency to the dollar.

The continued decline in oil prices in global markets, leaving behind the deterioration of the oil revenues in their annual budgets in countries that are highly dependent, and in light of the insistence of some major oil-producing, countries such as Saudi Arabia to maintain its production ceiling unchanged.

And reduce the phenomenon of fluctuating oil prices must take measures can be applied through genuine will limit the deterioration of oil prices and the disposal of flooding the market with large quantities of oil, namely: First.

OPEC rid of domination major countries directly or through their allies from the Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Alco at the Sultanate of Oman and others.

Second.

Find oil revenues alternatives and the transition to a diversified economy, despite the availability of capabilities that help it, which include tourism (natural, historical or religious, agriculture and industry where oilproducing countries have the human resources and natural resources of energy sources are sufficient.

Third.

total commitment allocated to each state quota and not be exceeded by OPEC's decision, which makes the price of oil almost stable, or stop production to partially restore while oil prices recover, such as Norway.