سورية بين الحسم العسكري الممنوع و الحل السياسي المعطل

الملخص EN

The current situation in Syria is a clear example of a humanitarian tragedy that is the most prominent since the World War II.

Since the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” in Tunisia Egypt and Yemen there was a direct though undeclared message from the US for both the regime and the opposition that the “military resolution” is excluded although it was not on the table at the time.

At the time that it was allowed for the Syrian regime’s allies led by Iran and Russia to provide it with large shipments of qualitative arms the supply of arms for opposition was rationed in a way that caused imbalance to the military situation making a change for the benefit of the regime at the field level giving it a feeling that the umbrella of Western and perhaps international protection that was granted to it is still in effect and that could engage with the international community until it is reintegrated under several titles the most important of them is "The Fight Against Terrorism".

The closer the Syrians revolutionary approach the regime’s centers of positioning in the capital and the coast the more this leads an important segment of its officials and local supporters to reconsider their position of supporting the regime.

If those insisted on rejecting the international call for them to engage in a political settlement process it would be difficult to continue preventing the collapse of the regime under the under military pressure exerted by the revolutionary.

The ISIS reach to areas around Damascus represents a great deal of challenge for each of the regime and the opposition especially as it is the main beneficiary from the state of exhaustion suffered by both parties.

If the concerned parties did not accelerated resolving their position of a political solution the situation in Syria will be liable to enter into a new phase of the conflict after each party positioned itself near its popular supporter.

However this would likely lead to bloodshed actions especially from the part of the regime that increasingly becoming more and more tense and brutal with the growing of its human losses.