اختبار منحنى J للتجارة الخارجية في في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية من 1980 إلى 2015

الملخص EN

The goal of this study is to examine J curve that used to describe the short-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance through an ARDL Framework during the period 1980- 12015.

Our result validates Marshall-Lerner condition and J-Curve effect for Algerian trade in long run.

This result produces spurious J effect when oil exports may simply constitute the dominant income of the Algerian economy implying distortions in most other sectors Moreover, the estimated long-run ARDL model rejects the validity of Marshall-Lerner condition for Non-hydrocarbon trade balance while price elasticity is very week 0.07.

The depreciation of Algerian exchange rate is not expected to trade balance improvement.