أثر الصادرات الصناعية على النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن : دراسة تطبيقية (1980-2010)‎

الملخص EN

This study aims to investigate the impact of Industrial Exports on Economic Growth represented by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) in Jordan during the period (1980-2010).

Several diagnostic tests have been utilized such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philips-Perron tests for Stationarity, Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test.

The results show that the variables are not stationary in their levels but their first differences are stationary.

Also, the results show that there is a bi-directional causal relation between Industrial Exports and (RGDP).

Moreover, the Industrial Exports have a positive effect on the (RGDP).

Two major tools were used in the analysis: Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function, where these two tools were applied through the Error Correction Model (ECM).

The results show that the Industrial Exports are the strongest explanatory variable of the forecasting error of (RGDP), where the explanatory power ends up to be around 28% in the tenth year ahead.