قياس التوازن بين المنافع و الاشتراكات في نظام التأمينات الاجتماعية بالتطبيق على نظام التأمينات الاجتماعية بالمملكة العربية السعودية

الملخص EN

The rise in the number of pensioners in the retirement and insurance systems concerning civilians and soldiers will be a great burden on insurance institutions in Saudi Arabia.

This leads to higher expenses and pensions that would create an imbalance between expenses and contributions.

This research studies and analyses the relationship between the expected actuarial deficit (increase the compensations) and the demographic characteristics of the population of Saudi Arabia, as well as some other economic factors such as the inflation.

The main objective of this research is to contribute to the elimination or the reduction of expected actuarial deficit in the social security system in Saudi Arabia, through the study and the analysis of the most important initiatives taken by the leading countries to reduce the expected actuarial deficit in the social security systems, as well as to estimate the quantitative model for measuring the actuarial deficit in the social insurance systems, and the attempt to explain the mechanisms based on the factors and variables that affect the amount of the deficit.

To achieve the main objective of the study, the authors used descriptive approach in the theoretical part which is appropriated to the nature and the type of the study by which the important findings about the actuarial deficit of the social security systems in the leading countries are exposed and analysed.

In the empirical part, a quantitative analysis is used by determining a quantitative model which predicts the level of balance between the contributions and compensations in the social insurance systems.

The Dickey-Fuller tests have been used to study the stability of time-series variables.

The most important results show that there was no equilibrium between the average of compensations and the average of contributions.

The revenues received by the General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI) through contributions and investment returns are not sufficient to pay future benefits and the expected actuarial deficit of social insurance funds was due to the changing demographics of the population because the life expectancy is steadily increasing, which means that the benefits increases are not in line with the contributions.