طريقة (بوكس-جينكينز)‎ Box-Jenkins في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية و التنبؤ : دراسة تطبيقية على أعداد الحوادث المرورية و أعداد المصابين في المملكة العربية السعودية

الملخص EN

The key aim of the study is to identify the applicability of Box-Jenkins methodology in analyzing time series and forecasting numbers of traffic accidents and associated causalities in KSA.

Sample of the study included numbers of traffic accidents and associated causalities in the period from 1-1-1433 AH to 30-12-1437 AH.

Study adopted ARIMA Model after making sure it was the most appropriate one.

The study seeks to answer a number of questions, including, applicability of Box-Jenkins Methodology in the analysis of time series and forecast of traffic accidents numbers and associated causalities in KSA.

The study reached a host of findings, chief among them is that Box-Jenkins Methodology was the most appropriate one for the forecast of traffic accidents, and that traffic accidents as well as associated causalities would see a remarkable decline in the future.

Findings have also shown the effectiveness of future legislations set by KSA Ministry of Interior to reduce traffic accidents and associated causalities.

Study recommends using Box-Jenkins model to forecast traffic accidents and associated variables in the Arab World and to benefit from KSA's traffic accidents reduction measures.