نموذج مقترح للتنبؤ بتعثر المؤسسات الاقتصادية الجزائرية

الملخص EN

This research aims at finding a discriminant model –containing a series of financial rates– which allows obtaining periodic information about how close or far a firm is from bankruptcy.

It is considered as an alarm system for the management of these firms, in order to take necessary measures to avoid.

After practice multivariable linear discriminant analysis on Algerian economic institutions sample of 60 firms, between 2011– 2013, 30 firms of which are bankrupt, and the other are sound.

The results were satisfactory, and we came to the following model: Z=0.842X5+0.442X.

This model contains the best series of financial rates.

It allows 91.7% accurate prediction of the Algerian economic institutions bankruptcy, one year before it happen.