استخدام نموذج المعدلات الآنية لقياس أثر تقلبات أسعار البترول على النفقات العمومية في الفترة 1986-2014

الملخص EN

Since June 2014, the Oil prices have seen a gradual decrease in the international markets.

Brent Price which was around 110$ a barrel, experienced a fall at the beginning of 2015 to a level that is below 50$.

This fall is due to the "market forces"that represent the interaction between supply and demand as well as the impact of speculators' interference in the markets ; however, some analysts don't believe in this and explain the fact by political factors, but most analyzes link the decline in the price of crude and the abundance of supply in the oil markets, especially from outside the oil-exporting countries (OPEC) specifically the rocky oil boom in the United States.

In light of the sharp and continuous decline in oil prices globally, reaching its lowest level in the last six years, the Algerian government has faced a great challenge to face these fluctuations, which reduced the state revenues and consequently its impact on the budget hence the public expenditure.

In order to measure this effect , simultaneouse equations models have been used by linking the petroleum prices with the public expenditure through the petroleum collection.