التنبؤ بأعداد النخيل في محافظة البصرة باستعمال تحليل السلاسل الزمنية و تطبيق منهجية نماذج بوكس جينكنز

الملخص EN

The Purpose of this study is to identify the date Palm preparation in Basrah city and to Predict the subsequent period .To achieve this objective, the (Box& Jenkins) method or methodology was used in analysis (diagnosis , Estimation, model selection , prediction )Based on the annual data on the number of palm trees for the period (1980-2015) The results showed that the appropriate model is the ARIMA (2,1,2) , Based on this model ,the number of palm trees was predicted for the next five years (2016-2020).