أثر تقلبات أسعار البترول على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1970-2016)‎

الملخص EN

The objective of this study is to identify the effects of oil price fluctuations in Algeria on GDP in the short and long term, using: ARMA models (p, q, d), Box Jenkins methodology, ARCH models, And variance analysis.

The study concluded that: The volatility of oil prices has a direct impact on GDP.

This effect begins in the short term and continues in the long term.

In this regard, Algeria's economy suffers from a natural resource curse.

The response of GDP to oil price fluctuations is positive in the short term and negative in the long term.