استخدام نماذج ال GARCH متعددة المتغيرات من نوع DCC (الارتباط الشرطي الحركي)‎ و من نوع CCC (الارتباط الشرطي الثابت)‎ للتنبؤ بسعر الصرف للدينار العراقي مقابل الدولار

الملخص EN

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error , respectively Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility.

We concluded that CCC is better than DCC