مقارنة الكفاءة التنبؤية لنموذجي الانحدار و السلاسل الزمنية لحجم المبيعات : دراسة حالة مصنع مياه

الملخص EN

Forecasting is regarded as a cornerstone in many administrative and economic processes.

It is needed mostinsales management, which requires forecasting to predict future sales, using such quantitative models as regression analysis and time series analysis.

This study compares and contrasts these two models in terms of their efficiency to forecast, using as a case study a mineral water factory during the period of (2013-2015) of 36 months.

Statistical methods of these two models have been applied in order to detect the components of the time series, make forecasts, test adjustment quality, and make judgments on forecasting fields as well as the Theil index.

The examination was based on many diagnostic criteria and tests selected from several methods.

The study results have revealed that the simple linear regression model is more efficient and more effective in forecasting sales than the time series model