تغير خصائص الجفاف في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية خلال الفترة (1960-2010)‎ و تأثيراته الكامنة في النظم البيئية الحراجية

الملخص EN

Water deficit increasing under the recent climate change is considered as the trigger for decline in forest ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.

Droughts control the functioning of Mediterranean forest ecosystems through species distribution, carbon sequestration, fire occurrence and spread, and tree mortality.

Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was used to assess seasonal and annual drought characteristics in six meteorological stations located in the Syrian coastal region during the period (1960- 2010).Changes in drought intensity were detected using trends with Mann-Kendal test.

To estimate changes in drought frequency, differences in drought recurrence were computed for the two periods (1960 - 1985) and (1985 - 2010).

The results showed significant changes in drought characteristics in all stations.

The drought severity of rainy season has increased owing to increasing tendency in drought intensity during spring and winter (related to decrease in drought index values between -1 to -2.2 in winter and -2.15 to -2.75 in spring), and increment in extreme drought frequency versus diminishing frequency of extreme moisture in spring.

These changes will affect negatively the forest ecosystems and water resources, which will pose a challenge to manage these environmental resources in the future.