Simulate the effect of tariff customs on the Algerian economy in the light of trade openness using the computable general equilibrium model

الملخص EN

To assess the potential effects of economic policies, such as trade liberalization, quantitative economists rely on statistical modeling and data analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the effect of tariff customs reduction and elimination on some variables of the Algerian economy such as trade ( importation , exportation) and domestic production, family consumption, in the light of trade openness using the Computable General Equilibrium Model technique.

The basic data for the model is the table of inputs and outputs of Algeria in 2013, which was identified using the social accounting matrix created using national accounts data.

We have therefore tried to determine how the tariff customs affects the Algerian economy open to trade liberalization shocks, where we used a simulation of foreign policy, tariff reduction / elimination.

The results of the study show an increase in production, exports and imports in most sectors, but government revenues have fallen sharply as a result of trade liberalization, This deficit resulting from total trade liberalization (trade openness) has been adjusted by raising taxes on income and institutions.

After the adjustment process, the results showed that output and employment were not affected, but private consumption fell relative to its pre-adjustment level.

Key words : Trade openness, Algeria, Tariff customs, Simulation, Computable General Equilibrium Model.

JEL Classification Codes: XN1, XN2