أثر صدمات أسعار النفط على ديناميكية النشاط الاقتصادي و معدلات البطالة : أدلة تجريبية من الجزائر باستخدام نماذج الانحدار الذاتي الهيكلية

الملخص EN

The paper aimed at examining the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on economic growth, unemployment, government revenue and government expenditure in Algeria using a SVAR model methodology for the period 1970- 2017.

The results of the econometric study provided important insights into the magnitude of economic growth response, unemployment rates and the volume of public spending for positive and negative oil price shocks, this means that these responses appear asymmetric, where these variables interact with negative oil price shocks rather than positive shocks.

As for the volume of government revenue the response was more pronounced, both for positive and negative oil price shocks.

The results of this study clearly indicate the need to diversify the national economy to reduce the impact of negative oil shocks, particularly on government revenues, and that economic decision-makers should associate the principle of planning with the general budget and the rationalization of public expenditure.

Keywords: Positive and negative oil price shocks; economic activity; unemployment; SVAR