تقدير الطلب على الطاقة الكهربائية للقطاع السكني في محافظة نينوى للسنوات 2004-2016 باستخدام المكونات غير المشاهدة

الملخص EN

This paper investigates studied the reality of the total monthly demand of Nineveh Province electricity for the period of (96) months between (2004-2012).

The statistical analyses of the studied data showed that there is seasonal effective, general trend and random pattern .The Unobserved Components Model (UCM) was used in the series analysis and forecasting for four years’ prediction till 2016 was adopted.

Depending on the statistics Goodness of fit using forecasting errors, fortunately it turn out to be a good fitting for the data model used in the research.