Application du modèle de Polak : au cas de l’Algérie période 2000-2013

الملخص EN

For a long time, the Algerian economy is highly dependent on oil exports, foreign loans, a rigorous control of foreign exchange from the government and an informal market dominant.

In effect, the "against shocks" oil 1986 with the tightening of the external constraint of consumer goods, this coating to date, two forms, the importance of the food bill in the development and aggravation the trade deficit and the need to import more food supplies to force the Algerian government to expand exports and increase its openness to the outside in order to balance its trade balance (BC) see its balance of payments (BOP).

The monetary approach to the balance of payments is a theoretical framework to identify the elements of the imbalances in the balance of payments and fiscal imbalances.

Using the Polak model, evaluation of certain parameters and understanding the interactions between the different variables of the economy, will help us better perceive the nature of these imbalances.

The main purpose of the model has been the analysis and understanding of the deficits in the balance of payments and the policy actions needed to overcome them.

It is important to clarify how the monetary approach to the balance of payments (AMBP) could help to identify the elements of the imbalances in the balance of external payments.

And the political actions taken to overcome them.

We estimated the model parameters for the period 2000 to 2013 Where we reported that the net inflow of non-bank capital (net foreign borrowing) are positive in the period 2000-2013, which does not question eligibility of Algeria to other external credits or to attract foreign direct investment.

Consequently, the Algerian economy is not expected increase in the world price of oil to fund its development investments and adjust its balance of payments.

The results corroborate the importance of global oil prices on the results of the balance of payments of Algeria.