تحليل العلاقة بين صدمات أسعار النفط و بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي في العراق للمدة 1990-2015

الملخص EN

This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and some major macroeconomic variables (Real Gross Domestic Product, Government Expenditure, Inflation rates and Unemployment Rates) in Iraq economy For the 1990-2015 period.

We have used restricted VAR model and Johansen Co-integration test and Impulse Response Functions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the Iraq economy.

Our results indicate that despite the decline in oil revenues as a percentage of GDP to 28.6% in 2015 compared with 42.4% in 2014, this was not accompanied by decrease in public expenditure, because a large part of government spending goes to the operational budget, Which is characterized by high stability, in light of the increase of government spending on military operations for the purpose of extending security stability.

Inflation rates have been slightly changed, We believe is due to the fact that the money supply in the Iraqi economy has not changed due to the changes in oil prices.ا This is due to the large size of the Operating Budget, which is relatively stable at the expense of the Capital Budget, 30% at best for the duration of the research.