تقنية دلفي و أهميتها في الدراسات المستقبلية

الملخص EN

The Delphi technique which got its name from the Greek temple of Delphi, in which the priests practiced prediction, was used extensively by the American School of Futures Studies.

Its main idea is to present all possibilities for a further development of a certain phenomenon in the future and then to gradually exclude some probabilities until a specific prospect is agreed upon.

The questionnaires are then used to provide feedback until participants reach a general agreement that clears all viewpoints on the matter.

The basic idea of this technique is that the results of the thinking in group are much better than the results of any individual's reasoning and are used in future studies.

The technique aims at discovering future alternatives and rationalize the process of trade-offs between alternatives.