قياس و تحليل أثر صدمة الإيرادات النفطية في سعر الصرف في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (1999-2015)‎

الملخص EN

The Iraqi economy is characterized by its legitimacy due to its dependence on the oil sector, which is the main source in the financing of the revenues side of the public budget of the state by more than (82%), which constitutes more than (56%) of GDP, And this dependency imposed on the economy the feature of instability and volatility of the direction of shocks in oil revenues associated with oil prices and this dependency has made the monetary authority (CBI) has difficulty in controlling the variables of monetary policy in such a way that ensures the achievement of its final objectives, Economic stability, maintaining the foreign exchange rate and lowering inflation rates .

This study attempts to measure the effect of fluctuations in oil revenues on the exchange rate for the period 1999-2015, based on the hypothesis that the fluctuations of oil revenues in both of them (positive and passive) contribute to monitoring the course and movement of changes in the foreign exchange rate.

To achieve this hypothesis, the research structure was divided into three sections, the first dealt with the theoretical framework of oil policy and the exchange rate, while the second dealt with the analysis of economic variables studied for the Iraqi economy and the third dealt with the economic measurement of the impact of the shock of oil revenues in the exchange rate The results of the study reflected the large role played by the shocks of oil revenues in the exchange rate, and recommends the study monetary policy in Iraq to pursue an effective monetary policy in order to maintain the exchange rate, at the lowest costs, which maintaining foreign Exchange reserves.