قياس أثر أدوات البنك المركزي في تحقيق الاستقرار النقدي في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة 2003-2015

الملخص EN

The aim of the research is to show success or failure in the performance of the Central Bank of Iraq after 2003 by using the means and tools of modern monetary policy such as currency auction, existing facilities, the auction of remittances and bonds because of their role in achieving monetary stability, identification of the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving its objectives and the use of standard model in analyzing the impact of monetary policy indicators, namely, money supply, interest rate and exchange rate in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the rate of inflation.

In order to reach its goal, the research was divided into three chapters.

The first chapter dealt with the central bank, monetary policy and monetary stability.

The second chapter wasunder the title of "the Central Bank of Iraq and the development of monetary policy".

The third chapter dealt with measuring the impact of tools of the Central Bank in achieving monetary stability in the Iraqi economy (1990-2015).

The research was based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy carried out by the Central Bank of Iraq was sufficient to achieve the state of monetary stability during the period of the research.

The research reached conclusions, the most important of which is the usage of modern tools by the Central Bank in addition to traditional monetary tools that have significantly participated in achieving goals.

The standard results showed that the indicators of the monetary policy used in the standard model for both equations have a significant impact on the dependent variables when the determining coefficient (R2) is 97%, which means that the independent variables interpreted 97% of the dependent variables.

As is also evident from the relation between the independent and dependent variables used in the research, they do not all agree with the logic of economic theory due to the incorrect decisions taken in most areas (if not all) and the adoption of GDP on an almost single source of revenues representing in oil sector as arentier country.

When studying the relation between the indicators of monetary policy used in our research as independent variables and the rate of growth of GDP as a dependent variable in the first model or the first equation, we find that the exchange rate is inconsistent with the nature of economic theory because of the sharp fluctuations of the foreign exchange rate against the dinar, which is slowing the process of economic growth.

Similarly, in respect to money supply, the negative signal indicates its inverserelation with the rate of growth of GDP and this does not correspond to the logic of economic theory.

This is due to the weakness of the productive economic sectors except the oil sector, which is not affected by money supply but has effect upon it.

When studying the relation between the monetary policy indicators used in our search as independent variables and the rate of inflation as a dependent variable in the second standard model, we find that the money supply has an inverse relation with the inflation rate.

This result does not agree with the logic of economic theory due to the nature of the Iraqi economy and the structure of its foreign trade, namely, the open borders and the dumping policy practiced by many countries of the world towards Iraq, as well as the interest rate.

The positive sign indicates the direct relation between it and the rate of inflation and this is contrary to the logic of economic theory, which indicates the existence of an inverse relation between them.

This fluctuation in the interest rate shows that the Central Bank of Iraq was constrained by government decisions, making the interest rateexert a slight influence on the country's monetary policy.