أثر التقلبات في سعر الصرف الحقيقي للدينار الأردني مقابل الدولار الأمريكي على التقلبات في النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن

الملخص EN

This study aims at investigating the effect of fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the Jordanian dinar against the US dollar on the fluctuations in economic growth in Jordan during the period (1980-2012).

Several diagnostic tests have been utilized such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests for stationarity.

The results show that the variables, except the fluctuations in the foreign prices' index, are not stationary in their levels whereas their first differences are stationary.

CUSUM test was applied for checking the stability of the model parameters, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was applied for the cointegration test, and Granger Causality test The results show existence of a negative impact of fluctuations in the real exchange rate on the fluctuations in economic growth in Jordan.

Moreover, the results revealed the existence of a long-run causal relationship among the variables.

This study recommends that it is necessary to adopt exchange rate policies that could reduce the fluctuations of the real exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar against the US Dollar.