تحليل أثر تطور سعر البترول على سعر الذهب العالمي : باستخدام النموذج غير الخطي NARDL

الملخص EN

This study included an analysis of the long-term impact of oil prices on gold prices.

Based on monthly data of the two commodities during the period from January 2010 to December 2017.

Using a non-linear NARDL model.

After estimating the model’s parameters using Eviews 9 software.

We found a non-linear and asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on the price of gold.

Where that, only negative fluctuations of the oil’s price have a negative and significant impact on the price of gold, in the short and long term.

We also found that the inflation rate had a positive and significant impact on the price of gold in the long term.

The value of the US dollar has had a negative impact only in the short term.