تكامل مخرجات نموذج مونتكارلو و سلوك مدراء مشاريع التشييد في السودان

الملخص EN

It has been observed that investors and construction industry organizations in Sudan were proned to several economical, political and social risks that affect their growing or closer.

Also, it has been found that a gap exists between construction project managers’ actual quantitative risk management capabilities and their expected structured risk management capabilities that is supposed to enable them to manage projects effectively.

It is the intent of this research to assess the amount of that gap.

A questionnaire was developed, data collected from project managers and a three point estimates technique was employed to develop deterministic project schedules for a default pjoject.

It was found that an unacceptable gap exist between the expected and actual respondents capabilities.

Infact, Monte Carlo simulation was performed to illustrate the effect of overall project risks of the default project’s duration and set contingency reserves for an agreed degree of confidence.

The critical path was noticed to be dynamic, a phenomenon that is rarely considered with deterministic solutions.

Finally, it is recommended to train respondents and company chief executive officers in the field of risk management.