التنبؤ بإنتاج الحليب الكلي باستخدام الحليب الجزئي و أوزان العنزات و وزن البطن عند الميلاد في الماعز الشامي

الملخص EN

This study aimed to predict the total milk production using some indicators (partial milk weight, weights of goats, abdomen mass at birth, type of birth and birth season) using linear equations.

According to results the early selection of females can be done, thus reducing expenditures and time and achieving fa^ successful achievements.

Data was collected from 705 goats kidding during the period 1993 and 2013 in Ezraa Research Station affiliated to the Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry lands (ACSAD), The collected data included: the weight of the goat before the mating season, weight of the goat after kidding, type of birth, the litter weight at birth , and milk production.

Database using the software D-Base 5.5 (1999) was e^ablished, and the data was analized using the program SPSS 18 for comparing means, analizing of variance between the different variables, e^imating correlation coefficients among all measurements and weights, and using the coefficient of linear regression to estimate and find the best predicting equation suitable for the highest determination coefficient (R2) .

The average weight of the goat before the mating season was 48.7 ± 15.0 kg , the average weight of the goat after kidding was 56.1 ± 12.9 kg , the average birth mass was 6.76 ± 3.28 kg , the average total milk production was 281.9 ± 84.8 kg , the length of the milking season was 160 ± 42 days, the daily milk was 1.76 ± 0.441 kg , the milk for 30 days was 61.8 ± 21.4 kg, the milk for 60 days was 126.9 ± 33.7 kg , the milk for 90 days was183.1 ± 47.2 kg , the milk in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth months were 61.8 ± 12.3, 65.1 ± 18.8, 56.8 ± 17.4, 45.8 ± 13.5, 35.9 ± 13.3, and 26.0 ± 10.3 kg, respectively.

The results showed that the correlations observed (among the total milk production, milk production from the first month until the sixth month, milk production 60 days and 90 days, the weight of the goat before matting season, and after kidding, type of birth, litter weight at birth, and parity) were significant at level (P < 0.01) and the highest correlation coefficient between total milk and milk 90 days was (r = 0.90), while the lowest one was (r = 0.16) with the goat weight before mating season.

In this study some predictable equations were established between the total milk, partial milk, body weight of goat, type of birth , and mass weight at birth.