التحليل الاقتصادي القياسي لدالة الطلب على استيراد الشعير في سورية باستخدام منهجية ARDL للفترة 1961 إلى 2013

الملخص EN

Barley is the most important crop in Syria, and the government is interested in this crop in order to improve the livestock sector and achieve integration between plant and animal production.

The research aims to estimate the demand function of imported barley, and to identify the factors affecting the demand function.

Autoregressive Distributed Lag model )ARDL( was used to test the existence of long and short-term relationship between the demand of the imported barley and the factors affecting it, based on secondary data for the period 1961 to 2013.

The results showed that the data were normally distributed, and the variables were stable and integrated at the level I )0( and level I )1(.

Moreover, ARDL )1, 0, 4, 0, 4( was the best model, according to AIC as well as there is a co-integration between the variables of the model.The results showed a long-term relationship between the quantity imported and its value and the quantity exported, and a balanced relationship between the study variables in the short term towards a long-term balance relationshipThe model has exceeded all the diagnostic tests which confirm that the data used in estimating the ARDL model is free of any structural change.