واقع إنتاج محصول القمح في مصر في ظل المتغيرات العالمية و السياسات السعرية التأشيرية

الملخص EN

The study problem can be presented as the lack of quantitative and qualitative motivation to producers of wheat in Egypt which can be expressed in the failure to allocate sufficient funds to support the prices of inputs and price fluctuation, Moreover, external variables, in the first half of 2008, affected global food prices, Therefore, the main objective of this research is to identify the most important economic variables affecting both sides of the production and consumption of wheat and how to reduce the size of the gap during the period (2000-2014), In addition to examining the impact of the policies on economic variables associated with its production.

The results of the study showed: -There is a general trend of increasing in the gap of wheat; it was around 331,97 thousand tons per year, the equivalent of 5,26% of the annual average.

-The quantity wheat gap affected morally by each State's ability to import, and population, and the world price, and farm price, productivity, and time.

-The average proportion of dependence on the abroad during the study period was about 44,22% indicating that Egypt is in a hazardous food dependency where dependency rate protect about 30%.

-The impact of increasing the farm price of wheat during the study period (2000-2014) led to increased turnout of farmers increase the areas planted with wheat as a cash crop.

- It is also clear that about 85,03% of changes in monetary value of wheat during the study period due to the change in area harvested, productivity and farm price, and about 14,97% from changes in the value of crop output due to other factors.

- Method of setting prices for wheat crop insurance on the basis of world prices considered as the best one between the other methods studied, followed by determination of the price according to production costs of the crop with the average 50%.