إدارة المخاطر في مزارع إنتاج الخضر التصديرية في محافظة الفيوم

الملخص EN

The research aimed to analyze the risks in some of export- oriented vegetables production farms in Fayoum Governorate, how to manage these risks, analyzing the different scenarios that the farm managers take to deal with the existing or potential risks.

The data were based on a questionnaire that collected data from 114 export vegetable farms (79 tomato farms, 35 green bean farms).

It also relied on the use of the risk management standard model, SWOT analysis, the hazard rate matrix and some other statistical methods.

The results of the study included an analysis of the risks of tomatoes and green beans and the resulting losses.

The results of the risk analysis of tomato yield showed that 97.47% of the study population, which is in 77 tomato production farms, The average yield per feddan before the infection decreased from 35.89 tons to about 23.95 tons after infection, and the remaining farms are 21 farms, about 27.27% were exposed to the loss of the whole crop, and for the crop of green beans The risk of disease was reduced to only 85.71%, about 30 farms, resulting in a decrease in the crop by 32.38%, from 4.2 tons per feddan on average to about 2.84 tons, in about 83.33% of the number of farms affected, while about 16.67% of these farms have been completely lost, so the total loss of the crop is estimated by 14.28% of the green beans, and the probability of a decrease of the crop by about 32.38% of the average without the injury of about 71.43% , Indicating that the risk is higher in the tomato crop than the green bean crop.

The potential risk for pests and diseases was the effect of temperature and only 5 farms about 14.28% of green beans farms, reduced their productivity by 27.5%.

The third risk is the lack of irrigation water and only two farms, about 2.53% of the tomato farms, resulted in a decrease in the average productivity of feddan by 23.19%.