تقدير دوال الطلب علي صادرات مصر من محصولي العنب و البرتقال في أهم الأسواق العالمية

الملخص EN

The study aims to study the determinants of external demand on the most important Egyptian fruit crops (orange or grapes) in the most important international markets.

The study examined the development of Egyptian exports of the most important fruit crops (orange or grapes), the geographical distribution of Egypt's exports of orange- The instability of exports (orange - grape) and determining the main factors affecting the external demand for orange and grapes in the most important import markets to estimate the impact on the amount of exports.

The research was based on secondary data published and unpublished by different local and international bodies.

The descriptive analysis method was used using some statistical methods.

The results of the study show that the export of the study was characterized by continuous increase during the study period.

The study also includes estimating the instability coefficients of the quantities, values and prices of grapes and oranges for the export prices of the study crops.

The results indicate that the most years Stabilized for orange in 2005, where the coefficient of instability was 1.68, while for grapes the most stable year in 2015, which amounted to about 3.8 The study dealt with the geographical distribution of exports of the two crops and the relative importance of importing countries from the study crops.

It was the main importer of orange crops (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands) and was the main importer of grapes (United Kingdom, Holland, Italy, Germany).

And estimate the demand for exports of the study.

It should be noted that one of the most important global economic variables that have an impact on the Egyptian agricultural exports are export prices in dollars, the amount of domestic production, average per capita income in the importing countries, Mali The amount of imports of the crop to importing countries.

Recommendations: 1.

The importance of the quality of horticultural agricultural exports, especially with a positive correlation between the export price and the estimated value of the total quantity exported, as shown in the equation for the determinants of global demand for oranges.

As indicated by the study of the demand for oranges in the Russian market, the price reflects an increasing demand, and reflects the impact of upgrading the product.

2 - Follow-up markets promising that can increase the share of Egyptian market.

3- Reviewing the geographical distribution of Egyptian orange exports in the foreign markets in order to maximize the return on exports 4- Conduct studies to identify foreign products and how to compete with Egyptian agricultural exports.