استخدام أنموذج ARIMA في التنبؤ الاقتصادي بإنتاج لحم الأغنام في محافظة الحسكة حتى عام 2021

الملخص EN

Sheep meat is one of the most varieties of red meat consumption that is a major source of animal protein, vitamins and minerals.

This research aims to predict economic production of meat in the Al Hassakeh governorate until 2021.

Using the Box – Jenkins Method which combines Autoregressive and Moving Average, Using time series annual returns for the period from 1985 to 2015, it was conducted logarithmic conversion data and Dickey – Fuller test.

Several models were estimated by drawing autocorrelation and partial auto correlation function and Akaike and Bayesian criterias.

The appropriate model was diagnosed, According to statistical tests, goodness-of-fit indicators, it is revealed that the model ARIMA (1, 0, and 0) is the best models in obtaining accurate predictions of meat production until the year 2021.

The research is expected to reach an annual growth rate of about 0.0346%.

It recommends research attention to animal production, and to identify the difficulties to treat them, the development of appropriate policies and the provision of inputs to stimulate producers to increase their production.