استخدام نماذج بوكس جينكيز للتنبؤ بسعر الصرف في السودان خلال الفترة (1990-2030)‎

الملخص EN

This study aims to use bucks Genkiz’s model for rate prediction in Sudan.

the problem of the of the study stated to search about the best model to measure rate prediction in Sudan due to the absence of stability recently that results in decreasing in production and export.

according to the current economic situation, the study assume that the rate will be high permanently.

the study found out a lot of important findings, the most important are: the arma (1,2,1) is the best model for rate prediction in Sudan, when the real value and the compared one , there is no converge or rapprochement in the value.

the predicted value is less that the real one till 2002 then the predicted value outperformed.

the study recommend that exports should be supported and encouraged to increase its outcomes and diversity.

the focus should be on the exports that needed outside the country and all facilitation should be presented to the investors to enable them to participate in the production process to increase the product value.