استخدام منهجية بوكس-جنكينز للتنبؤ بصادرات السمسم في السودان خلال الفترة 1990-2028

الملخص EN

This study uses Box–Jenkins method to predict sesame exports in Sudan.

After analysis discriminating via the various statistics it is found that AR MA (5,3,5) model is the best model to measure this phenomena.

This model was used to predict till 2028.

The results indicate that the predicated values is less than the real values till 2001.

Then the predicted value is bigger.

The study recommended that the foreign economic relationship and to search in how to apply it to help in marketing of products.