تطبيق نماذج بوكس-جنكنز على إصابات مرض السرطان بالسودان في الفئرة من يناير 2002 م إلى ديسمبر 2004 م

الملخص EN

This study aims to formulate a mathematical model of cancer in Sudan; and in order to achieve its objectives it uses a Chi square method to measure the relationship between the qualitative variables of the study; as well as using auto correlation function (ACF) to measure the stationary of the time series; besides using Box and Price statistics to measure the significance of the correlation coefficients.

Moreover, the study used Akaike measure (AC) to choose the best models; while it’s econometric model had been estimated using the methodology of Box-Jenkins for estimating time series.

The study most important findings indicated that the disease is spreading in female more than the male.

The study also showed that the moving averages model of the first order is appropriate for estimating cancer in Sudan during the study period.

The study main recommendations call for following the medical instructions that related to medical prevention of the disease; as well as paying more attention for the disease by opening more specialized disease centers.