التداعيات الجيوسياسية لتقلبات أسعار النفط : رؤية استشرافية

الملخص EN

This study aims at looking forward at the geopolitical consequences of oil price volatility on three key levels; oilproducing Arab countries, the relationship between the regional powers and the structure of the international system.

In this context, the study seeks to explain the relation between economic and political factors as they are explanatory to the oil price volatilities and works on exploring the geopolitical effects on the producing countries, taking on consideration the new inputs, such as the retreat of Social Contract theory and the retreat of the region’s stature in the view of the international force leading the international regime.

In the same context, the study seeks to anticipate the potential effects of oil price volatilities on the relationships between the regional powers and if the crisis pushes toward conflict or agreement, taking on consideration the new inputs, such as the retreat of the regional Arab regime and the emergence of new, rising regional powers that seek to change the regional power balance.

The study also works on anticipating the future of the international regime in the light of oil price volatilities, since controlling power resources was one of the main factors that formed the international power map during the 20th century and was a main component in the United States’ strategy after the Cold War to keep its domination on the international system and prevent potential competitors.